In one sense, this is a moot question. The split has already happened. The ANC contains within it President Jacob Zuma and his band of shady cronies who have constructed a state within a state that essentially operates outside the law and constitution.
There is the Minister for State Security, David Mahlobo, who investigates people such as the public protector, Thuli Madonsela, for being a CIA spy.
There is the Minister of Police, Nathi Nhleko, defender of the fire-pool.
There is the Minerals Minister, Mosebenzi Zwane, who wants financial regulators shut down and Gupta bank accounts re-opened.
There is the Minister of Co-operative Governenance and Traditional Affairs, Des van Rooyen, who puts on camouflage T-shirts and demands that Gordhan face the music.
The other side of the divide is harder to define. It contains those who believe that the Zuma path is suicidal for the party, destroying its electability and imperiling the building of a democratic order focused on development.
Gordhan is obviously on that side of the fence, along with his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, and former finance ministers Nhlanhla Nene and Trevor Manuel. Their ranks also include former minister Barbara Hogan and former Constitutional Court justice Zac Yacoob.
There is the former government spokesman, Themba Maseko, and the man who once helped prop Zuma up, former president Kgalema Motlanthe. Gauteng Premier David Makhura is on that side of the fence. He led a standing ovation for Gordhan as the news of his charging broke.
Read the full story here on Rand Daily Mail