Elections poll indicate weakened DA & ANC majority this SA election season

Image source: The South African

The DA’s reign in in the Western Cape is dodgy this year while the ANC is losing support in Gauteng, and the EFF is on a growth path nationally.

These are some of the key findings contained in the the Criterion Report, a quarterly market research survey conducted by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) into voter preferences, attitudes and the South African political landscape

ALSO READ: Elections 2019: The ‘Indian’ vote must go here

National ballot: ANC majority in the balance, EFF continues to grow, DA stable

  • The ANC currently stands on 49.5% nationally, down 5.2 percentage points from February (54.7%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 51%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it increases to 50%.
  • The DA currently stands on 21.3% nationally, down 0.5 percentage points from February (21.8%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also increases to 24%.
  • The EFF currently stands on 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February (12.2%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 14%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 14%.2.

Gauteng provincial ballot: ANC well below a majority, significant DA growth on low turnout

ALSO READ:Elections 2019: The ‘Indian’ vote must go here

  • The ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.
  • The DA currently stands on 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.
  • The EFF currently stands on 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12.3%.

Western Cape provincial ballot: DA majority under threat, ANC declines, ACDP/EFF growth

ALSO READ:Elections 2019: The ‘Indian’ vote must go here

  • The DA currently stands on 44.6% on the provincial ballot, down 5.5 percentage points from February (50.1%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 50%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 51%.
  • The ANC currently stands on 27.8% on the provincial ballot, down 6.1 percentage points from February (33.9%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 29%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 28%.
  • The ACDP currently stands on 7.0% on the provincial ballot, up 3.5 percentage points from February (3.5%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party stays at 7%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also stays at 7%.
  • The EFF currently stands on 6.8% on the provincial ballot, up 5.8 percentage points from February (1.0%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 5%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 5%.

The poll is based on a sample of 2,375 registered voters from April 18-25, 2019. This is the fourth IRR survey of the electoral landscape, to supplement surveys carried out in September 2018, December 2018 and February 2019.

In its analysis of the poll, the IRR said: “Leading up to December, on the back of Cyril Ramaphosa’s election, the ANC had managed to consolidate much of the support it had lost under Jacob Zuma. That renewal was built on two pillars, exemplified by Ramaphosa: Good governance and a tough stance on corruption.

“But a combination of factors – primarily load-shedding and revelations before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry – directly undermined that offer. Over April, these were compounded by a weak election campaign, which appears bereft of both inspiration and impact, the ANC was thus unable to hold onto those alienated voters it had won back up to December, and they returned to the EFF in April. As a result of this, the ANC also lost the differential advantage it enjoyed over smaller parties in December.

“The ANC can still win back some of this lost support, these voters are fluid; it will need a powerful closing (final stretch) on the campaign trail.”

On the EFF, the IRR said the party had lost some support in Gauteng from February (although still up from 2014) but grew in other places. The IRR poll puts it on 8.9% in the Western Cape in April and, in December, on 10.3% in KwaZulu-Natal (both on the national ballot). Both these numbers represent significant growth from 2014 (2.3% and 1.8% in those two provinces respectively).

ALSO READ:Elections 2019: The ‘Indian’ vote must go here

Coalitions are possible in both the current ANC-administered Gauteng and the DA-run Western Cape after the elections, says the IRR.

On Gauteng voting, the IRR poll puts the ANC on 42.8%, significantly below the majority it held in 2014 (53.6%). “However, lower turnout appears to favour the DA. In April, on a 67.7% turnout, ANC support dropped to 39%. In fact, on that turnout scenario, for the first time, support for the DA surpasses the ANC in the province, and climbs to 40%,” said the IRR. The DA’s baseline support is measured at 31.9% in April. Support for the EFF is Gauteng is seen as 13%, an increase from where it stood in 2014 (10.3%).

Based on the April poll, the IRR said: “The possibility of no party securing an outright majority in Gauteng on the provincial ballot remains very real, and a coalition scenario, post-election, is most likely.”

Commenting on the Western Cape, the IRR analysis states that in the April polling, the DA’s baseline support level has dropped significantly, to 44.6% on the provincial ballot. “But that decline is exceeded by the decline in ANC support in the province,” seen at 27.8%.

“The loss of support for both the DA and the ANC in the Western Cape can be ascribed to growth of smaller parties.”

The ACDP support is seen at 7%, the EFF at 6.8% and the Good Movement at 2.8%.

The IRR states: “There is a chance of a coalition scenario in Western Cape, post-election.”

Source: TimesLIVE


About Indianspice Staff Reporter

Report and write stories for Indianspice.co.za. It is our ambitious goal to cover issues/events/news concerning South Africa and the diaspora.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.